Decide

The model's track record

42 matches · 1,312 predictions · Brier 0.081 · 10 May 2026 – 29 May 2026 · model v3.0.0, v3.1.0

Every match we project is logged before kickoff and graded once it has been played. The Brier score is the mean squared error of a probability — lower is better, 0 is perfect. That record covers the match-outcome calls; the point distributions above run on the same projection but have not themselves been graded against a played gameweek. The full record →