Cold in front of goal: 6 goals below xG — the chances say a bounce is coming.
Flat-track: production drops sharply against the top third.
| Stat | Top third | Middle | Bottom third |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matches | 14 | 8 | 12 |
| Goals /90 | 0.08 | 0.14 | 0.09 |
| Assists /90 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Shots /90 | 0.84 | 1.42 | 1.21 |
| Key passes /90 | 0.46 | 0.28 | 0.56 |
| Take-ons /90 | 0.08 | 0.14 | 0.46 |
Adjustment v1.1 · calibrated against 1401 league transitions + 1004 cross-league cup fixtures · methodology
Cooling: progression and movement down vs last season at 29.
Middle of his age group: 74th percentile for movement among forwards aged 27–31.
vs forwards aged 27–31 · 170 peers · pool pct → age band| Season | Team | League | Min | Apps | G/90 | A/90 | Sh/90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Portsmouth | Championship | 3,400 | 42 | 0.08 | 0.03 | 1.16 |
| 2024-25 | Portsmouth | Championship | 2,635 | 32 | 0.38 | 0.10 | 2.22 |
Profiles like M. Kaufmann — forwards with this shape at 29.
Watch the downside: pressing (2nd pct) is a real weakness for the role.
Reliable: form in line with his season rate — no meaningful swings.
Top underlying game: 0.84 xG vs Norwich.