Overperforming xG by +3 — output is a touch ahead of the underlying numbers.
Flat-track: production drops sharply against the top third.
| Stat | Top third | Middle | Bottom third |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matches | 6 | 6 | 8 |
| Goals /90 | 0.00 | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| Assists /90 | 0.33 | 1.32 | 0.00 |
| Shots /90 | 0.99 | 1.65 | 1.35 |
| Key passes /90 | 1.32 | 3.30 | 1.35 |
| Take-ons /90 | 1.65 | 1.98 | 1.35 |
Adjustment v1.1 · calibrated against 1401 league transitions + 1004 cross-league cup fixtures · methodology
Rising: progression and involvement up sharply vs last season — and he's doing it at 19.
Elite for his age: 99th percentile for progression among U21 forwards.
vs U21 forwards · 72 peers · pool pct → age band| Season | Team | League | Min | Apps | G/90 | A/90 | KP/90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Sporting CP | Primeira Liga | 876 | 20 | 0.21 | 0.51 | 1.95 |
| 2024-25 | Sporting CP | Primeira Liga | 2,257 | 34 | 0.08 | 0.16 | 2.11 |
Profiles like Álvaro Montoro — forwards with this shape at 19.
Watch the downside: pressing (3rd pct) is a real weakness for the role.
Reliable: form in line with his season rate — no meaningful swings.
Valuation holding steady.
Top underlying game: 0.82 xG away to Famalicao.