Underperforming xG by 3 — the chances are there; finishing should catch up.
Open-play threat: 100% of his non-penalty output comes in open play.
Steady across opponent tiers — no big drop against the top third.
| Stat | Top third | Middle | Bottom third |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matches | 10 | 6 | 11 |
| Goals /90 | 0.27 | 0.41 | 0.14 |
| Assists /90 | 0.27 | 0.20 | 0.55 |
| Shots /90 | 1.89 | 1.82 | 1.64 |
| Key passes /90 | 2.69 | 2.23 | 3.42 |
| Take-ons /90 | 1.08 | 0.81 | 1.37 |
Adjustment v1.1 · calibrated against 1401 league transitions + 1004 cross-league cup fixtures · methodology
Elite among his peers: 99th percentile for progression among forwards aged 26–30.
vs forwards aged 26–30 · 211 peers · pool pct → age bandProfiles like J. Álvarez — forwards with this shape at 28.
Watch the downside: pressing (1st pct) is a real weakness for the role.
Reliable: form in line with his season rate — no meaningful swings.
Valuation holding steady.
Top underlying game: 0.84 xG vs Konyaspor, 1 goal.